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+

+

+//example 4.37

+//calculate

+//probability of excedence

+//probability of flood magnitude occuring at:

+//at least once in 10 years

+//two times in 10 succesive years

+//once in 10 succesive years

+clc;funcprot(0);

+//given

+T=40;            //return period

+P=1/T;

+n=10;

+Rsk=1-(1-P)^n;

+s=1;t=1;

+for i=1:n

+    s=s*i;

+end

+for i=1:(n-2)

+    t=t*i;

+end

+P2n=s*P^2*(1-P)^8/(t*2);

+P1n=n*P*(1-P)^(n-1);

+Rsk=round(Rsk*1000)/1000;

+P2n=round(P2n*10000)/10000;

+P1n=round(P1n*1000)/1000;

+mprintf("probability of excedence=%f.",P);

+mprintf("\nprobability of flood magnitude occuring at least once in 10 years=%f",Rsk);

+mprintf("\nprobability of flood magnitude occuring at two times in 10 succesive years=%f",P2n);

+mprintf("\nprobability of flood magnitude occuring at once in 10 succesive years=%f",P1n);

+